Date of a Possible Severe Crisis: September 30, 2022 - October 6, 2022.

Facebook archive. First published on 2022-09-23.

For people who cannot change anything in the current situation in Ukraine, and for very emotional people, I recommend scrolling past this post. In it I want to suggest the most negative scenario that is possible, but I have no certainty that this is exactly what will happen. Therefore, this is a greatly exaggerated assumption based on esoteric symbolism. I hesitated for a long time before making this post, but if recent events frighten you and you have the opportunity to protect yourself, I think this post will help you make a decision.

Date of a possible severe crisis: September 30, 2022 - October 6, 2022. This is a turning point at which, for some reason, the war will stop for a month until December 3(+- 2 days).

The special symbolism of October is aimed at restoring balance. In our last counteroffensive, we tilted the scales to our side, which caused an imbalance of forces on the battlefield. And now the Russian forces are striving to restore this imbalance, including through moBilization in Russia. But if we take into account the factors that affect the redistribution of troops, replenishment, and training, it is obvious that they do not have time, and we can collapse their defense of the entire front. That is, hu#lo needs to win time somehow.

It is not very creative in tactics and strategy, and therefore this will definitely be some large-scale terrorist attack that is supposed to slow us down. It is difficult to assume what kind of terrorist attack this is without sufficient information, but the fact that we will be dealing with the consequences of this terrorist attack for a month is visible from my last forecast.

The worst-case scenario is the use of nuclear weapons. Such words are not thrown to the wind, and one should realize that humanity opened this Pandora's box only once and clearly understands the possible level of consequences. Based on this and on the fact that the consequences of the terrorist attack will not be so long-term, only a month, one can assume at most the use of tactical nuclear weapons. And if analysts are to be believed, the consequences of their use pass in 3 weeks.

The place where this type of weapon is used and the possible method of use must include inflicting maximum losses in manpower on our army. The possible radius of destruction that I managed to find is about 8 km for a tactical warhead of 100 kilotons. Accordingly, a particular danger is posed by precipitation with nuclear dust, which over a month will almost completely settle in one way or another.

This is roughly the information hu#lo uses when declaring the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons. For it, these are minor consequences, actually as for the whole world, since serious natural cataclysms cause more serious problems.. And it hopes that Europe and America will also delay retaliatory actions, as they have delayed throughout the entire military conflict.

The delay of our partners will play into the hands of the Russian forces. While the UN, G7, and military ministers are holding meetings and deciding how to react, our army will not be able to continue advancing. Even if we do not suffer great losses, the very use of this type of weapon will become a strong demoralizing factor, and the place of its use will long be considered dangerous, even after the real danger ceases to exist.

A tactical nuclear strike is a very logical scenario for slowing our offensive without fully stopping the war. The second scenario could be negotiations, which are impossible for a number of reasons. The third scenario could be NATO intervention, which for some reason I cannot fathom is not happening.

If we consider a mitigation of this scenario, then we should look for an event that could potentially stop the war for a month. Apart from the three scenarios listed above, I cannot find another event. There is no other force that could stop the struggle for the existence of an entire nation. If you have options for how the enemy can stop our offensive in another way that I have not listed, leave a comment.