Forecast verification: archived mundane forecasts and events

Checked on: 13.09.2026

What Was Checked

An advance forecast needs a publication date before the event, a limited time window and a checkable event topic. Texts published later are shown separately and excluded from the calculation.

Personal charts, philosophical materials, texts without an event window, and reflections that cannot be checked through news were excluded.

Method

The check follows the principle of forecast verification: the forecast is compared with the observed event inside the stated time window. This approach is used in forecasting disciplines to assess how closely a forecast matches the actual outcome: CAWCR: Forecast Verification.

The publication date is checked first; the stated window and all substantial parts of the forecast are then compared with the event. The weighted score is the sum of grade weights divided by 11 eligible cards. Cards marked X are excluded.

The archived forecasts do not state percentage probabilities, so a categorical scale was used.

Scoring Scale

Verification results

Evidence Cards

1. Mars + Rahu, July 2014

Forecast publication date: 09.07.2014
Forecast window: 13.07.2014 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"...напрашивается вывод об активных военных действиях усиленных и умноженных, которые могут выйти из-под контроля."

"Время опасно всякого рода техногенными катастрофами, пожарами, взрывами и общей агрессивностью общества."

Forecast source: 13.07.2014 произойдет соединение Марса с Раху

What happened: on 11 July 2014, Ukrainian units near Zelenopillya were hit by rockets. Bellingcat describes a sudden change on the morning of 11 July: a mass artillery strike, dozens killed, and more than 100 wounded. A series of artillery attacks against Ukrainian border positions followed.

Event source: Bellingcat PDF report

Why counted: the short window, military topic, explosions/artillery, and sharp escalation matched.

2. Debaltseve, February 2015

Forecast publication date: 22.01.2015
Forecast window: 12-17.02.2015 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"12 февраля. Жесткий день... возможны котлы, и взятия в плен офицеров."

"17 февраля. Возможна передислокация войск, быстрое продвижение, взятие или отступления со стратегических точек."

Forecast source: Расшифрую свой последний прогноз

What happened: on 18 February 2015, Ukrainian troops began withdrawing from Debaltseve after heavy fighting. News reports described it as a retreat from a key conflict zone after days of fighting, despite the declared ceasefire.

Event source: CNBC / Reuters

Why counted: the forecast pointed in advance to an encirclement, restriction, redeployment, and retreat from strategic points. The realization matched in meaning and almost exactly in time.

3. Intensification of the War, March 2022

Forecast publication date: 25.02.2022, archived on the site on 13.06.2022
Forecast window: 15-17.03.2022 ±2 days
Score: B+

Forecast quotation:

"15.03.2022... бог войны станет сильнее примерно в 4-ре раза."

"17.03.2022... Раху войдет в созвездие Овна... Представьте войну умноженную до бесконечности."

Forecast source: Publication of 25.02.2022

What happened: on 13 March 2022, the Yavoriv military facility was struck. On 16 March, a Russian strike destroyed the Mariupol drama theater, where hundreds of civilians were sheltering. Human Rights Watch notes that the theater was attacked on 16 March and that hundreds of civilians were inside.

Event source: Human Rights Watch

Why counted: the event fell inside the window, but the broad prediction of intensified war did not specify this civilian tragedy.

4. Istanbul Talks and the Withdrawal from Kyiv

Text publication date: 13.06.2022<br> Forecast window: 27-30.03.2022 ±2 days
Score: X

Forecast quotation:

"Резонансное военное событие и событие влияющее на общество в целом - это конечно же отход российских войск от Киева и переговоры в Стамбуле."

"...пока будут перебрасывать силы динамика агрессии замедлится..."

Forecast source: Детализация прогноза на конец марта, апрель и прогноз на апрель

What happened: on 29 March 2022, a round of negotiations took place in Istanbul. In the same period, Russia announced a reduction of military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Event source: CBS News

Why excluded: the June text already describes the March negotiations and withdrawal, so this event cannot count as a forecast made in advance.

5. Ukraine's EU Candidate Status, June 2022

Forecast publication date: 13.06.2022<br> Forecast window: 23.06.2022 ±2 days
Score: D

Forecast quotation:

"23.06.22... Большое военное событие, возможно усиление нашей позиции..."

"Или любой другой формат договоренностей, где Украина будет занимать лидирующее место."

Forecast source: Прогноз на вторую половину июня

What happened: on 23 June 2022, EU leaders granted Ukraine candidate status.

Event source: EEAS

Why not counted: the date matched, but the forecast chiefly described a change on the front; EU candidate status does not establish that event topic.

6. Kremenchuk, June 2022

Forecast publication date: 13.06.2022<br> Forecast window: 28.06.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"28.06.22... День Конституции Украины. Будет для нас непростым."

"Особая опасность для мирного населения, в этот день отнеситесь разумнее к предупреждениям..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на вторую половину июня

What happened: on 27 June 2022, a Russian missile hit a shopping center in Kremenchuk. Human Rights Watch describes it as an attack that killed civilians in a shopping center.

Event source: Human Rights Watch

Why counted: the window, warning of danger to civilians, and a major civilian event matched.

7. Kharkiv Counteroffensive, September 2022

Forecast publication date: 02.09.2022
Forecast window: 09.09.2022 ±2 days
Score: C+

Forecast quotation:

"9 (+-2 дня) сентября произойдет крупное военное событие..."

"...может означать крупную победу или серьезные повреждения нанесенные врагу."

"После победы такой ценой, мы на какое-то время не сможем вести наступательные действия и более того будем вынуждены отступать."

Forecast source: Прогноз на сентябрь 2022

What happened: in early September 2022, Ukraine launched the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Within days, Russian defenses were broken and Ukraine liberated significant territory in Kharkiv region.

Event source: PBS / AP

Why partly counted: the counteroffensive matched the window and military topic. The claimed subsequent deterioration and retreat are not established by the cited event.

8. November 2022: Kherson, G20, and the Missile in Poland

Forecast publication date: 04.11.2022
Forecast window: 13-22.11.2022 ±2 days
Score: B

Forecast quotation:

"В ноябре месяце нас ждет два переломных момента, которые произойдут примерно в одно время 14-16.11.22."

"Мир однозначно поймет, что происходит катастрофа. Событий будет очень много..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на ноябрь 2022

What happened: on 11 November 2022, Ukraine liberated Kherson. On 15 November, during the G20 summit, a missile incident in Poland sharply increased the international resonance of the war.

Event sources: PBS / AP, NATO

Why partly counted: a battlefield event and international crisis fell in the broad window. The claimed change in the whole world's perception of the war is not established by these events.

9. December 2022: The United States, Patriot, and Military Joy

Forecast publication date: 11.12.2022
Forecast window: 20.12.2022 ±2 days
Score: D

Forecast quotation:

"20.12.22... Марс указывает на военный характер события, а два благодетеля... говорят про радости... от военного события."

"Россия обозначит свое намерения, и 20 реализует их."

Forecast source: Прогноз на декабрь 2022

What happened: on 21 December 2022, the United States announced a new $1.85 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, including Patriot. Zelensky visited Washington.

Event source: Ukrainska Pravda

Why not counted: U.S. aid arrived inside the window, but the cited event does not confirm the predicted action by Russia. The broad theme of military news alone is insufficient.

10. Kakhovka Dam, June 2023

Forecast publication date: 04.06.2023
Forecast window: 01.06.2023 ±3 days
Score: D

Forecast quotation:

"1.06.2023.(+-3 дня)... Война с мирными жителями. Удары по инфраструктуре."

Forecast source: Прогноз июнь 2023

What happened: on 6 June 2023, the Kakhovka dam was destroyed, leading to large-scale flooding, evacuations, environmental consequences, and military impact.

Event source: AP

Why not counted: the infrastructure topic matched, but the 6 June event fell outside the 29 May–4 June window.

11. Crimean Bridge, July 2023

Forecast publication date: 03.07.2023
Forecast window: 05.07.2023 ±2 days<br> Score: D

Forecast quotation:

"Транспортная сфера, сфера информации, телекоммуникации, электричества, дорог, путей снабжения ослабнет..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июль 2023

What happened: on 17 July 2023, the Crimean Bridge was hit. Traffic was stopped, the bridge was damaged, and its role as a military and logistical route again became central.

Event source: CNBC

Why not counted: the transport topic matched, but the 17 July event fell outside the 3–7 July window.

12. June 2024: Documents, Negotiations, Money, and the Peace Summit

Forecast publication date: 09.06.2024
Forecast window: 21-23.06.2024 ±2 days
Score: D

Forecast quotation:

"21.06... Резонансные новости, переговоры, встречи, подписание бумаг..."

"23.06... последствия события 21-го числа... финансы или мирные жители."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июнь 2024. Часть 2

What happened: on 15-16 June 2024, the Peace Summit took place in Switzerland. AP described the summit outcome as broad support for Ukraine's territorial integrity among participating states. In June, G7 decisions on a $50 billion Ukraine loan and the 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security agreement also appeared.

Event sources: CBS News / AP, Ukrainska Pravda, Ukrainska Pravda / Office of the President

Why not counted: the cited events occurred on 13–16 June, before the forecast window of 19–25 June.

13. Okhmatdyt, July 2024

Forecast publication date: 12.07.2024
Window: 05-11.07.2024
Score: X

Forecast quotation / author's verification:

"Венера - животные, мирные жители, дети и экология под угрозой."

"Венера входила в 12-ый дом лишений и ограничений, к которому относятся еще и больницы, дети входят в сферу влияния Венеры."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июль. Часть 2

What happened: on 8 July 2024, a Russian missile strike damaged the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv.

Event source: CNBC

Why excluded: the 12 July text describes the 8 July strike after it happened; it is an author's verification, not an advance forecast.

14. Energy Corruption Scandal, November 2025

Forecast publication date: 22.11.2025
Forecast window: late November 2025
Score: X

Forecast quotation:

"В натальной карте Украины Сатурн и Кету занимают 8-ой дом... это положение и делает нашу страну коррумпированной."

"...во время, когда энергосистема подвергается многочисленным атакам... 'сесть' на бабки от энергетики?"

Forecast source: Прогноз политической ситуации в Украине из-за коррупционного скандала

What happened: The Guardian reported that Zelensky fired two ministers amid a corruption scandal in the energy sector. The article mentions Energoatom, a $100 million scheme, and a political crisis around the president.

Event source: The Guardian

Why excluded: the 22 November text discusses a scandal reported by 12 November; that earlier news cannot verify an advance forecast.

Summary Table of Evidence Cards