Forecast verification: archived mundane forecasts and events

Prepared on: 08.05.2026

Short Conclusion

This verification reviews the archive of published mundane forecasts by Volodymyr Kraine. The unit of analysis is not the whole essay, but a separate event claim: a date or time window, a topic, an expected type of event, and the later realization in open sources.

In the first atomic sample, 45 claims were checked. The average quality index was 81.9%. Strong matches at the A/A- level accounted for 55.6%, while useful signals at the A/A-/B+/B level accounted for 91.1%.

The strongest forecasts do not work as general crisis language. They work as a combination of three elements:

• a short time window;
• a specific event domain: war, government, negotiations, finance, energy, children, civilians, infrastructure;
• an event later confirmed by independent sources.

What Was Checked

The verification includes only texts that have a publication date, a date or limited forecast window, a checkable event topic, and a later event that can be confirmed through open sources.

Personal charts, philosophical materials, texts without an event window, and reflections that cannot be checked through news were excluded.

In the public verification, the forecast source is the published production page on hidden-world.space. Local files were used only as a working index to find quotations quickly and are not listed as sources.

Method

The check follows the principle of forecast verification: the forecast is compared with the observed event inside the stated time window. This approach is used in forecasting disciplines to assess how closely a forecast matches the actual outcome: CAWCR: Forecast Verification.

For future forecasts, a probabilistic format and Brier score would be stronger. Brier score evaluates the quality of probabilistic forecasts for binary events: CRAN verification: Brier Score, NOAA Forecast Verification Glossary.

Brier score was not applied directly to the old archive because these forecasts were not published as probabilities from 0 to 100%. A categorical scale was used instead.

Scoring Scale

Aggregate Metrics

91.1% useful signals

Evidence Cards

1. Mars + Rahu, July 2014

Forecast publication date: 09.07.2014
Forecast window: 13.07.2014 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"...напрашивается вывод об активных военных действиях усиленных и умноженных, которые могут выйти из-под контроля."

"Время опасно всякого рода техногенными катастрофами, пожарами, взрывами и общей агрессивностью общества."

Forecast source: 13.07.2014 произойдет соединение Марса с Раху

What happened: on 11 July 2014, Ukrainian units near Zelenopillya were hit by rockets. Bellingcat describes a sudden change on the morning of 11 July: a mass artillery strike, dozens killed, and more than 100 wounded. A series of artillery attacks against Ukrainian border positions followed.

Event source: Bellingcat PDF report

Why counted: the short window, military topic, explosions/artillery, and sharp escalation matched.

2. Debaltseve, February 2015

Forecast publication date: 22.01.2015
Forecast window: 12-17.02.2015 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"12 февраля. Жесткий день... возможны котлы, и взятия в плен офицеров."

"17 февраля. Возможна передислокация войск, быстрое продвижение, взятие или отступления со стратегических точек."

Forecast source: Расшифрую свой последний прогноз

What happened: on 18 February 2015, Ukrainian troops began withdrawing from Debaltseve after heavy fighting. News reports described it as a retreat from a key conflict zone after days of fighting, despite the declared ceasefire.

Event source: CNBC / Reuters

Why counted: the forecast pointed in advance to an encirclement, restriction, redeployment, and retreat from strategic points. The realization matched in meaning and almost exactly in time.

3. Intensification of the War, March 2022

Forecast publication date: 25.02.2022, archived on the site on 13.06.2022
Forecast window: 15-17.03.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"15.03.2022... бог войны станет сильнее примерно в 4-ре раза."

"17.03.2022... Раху войдет в созвездие Овна... Представьте войну умноженную до бесконечности."

Forecast source: Краткий прогноз относительно войны Украина - Россия

What happened: on 13 March 2022, the Yavoriv military facility was struck. On 16 March, a Russian strike destroyed the Mariupol drama theater, where hundreds of civilians were sheltering. Human Rights Watch notes that the theater was attacked on 16 March and that hundreds of civilians were inside.

Event source: Human Rights Watch

Why counted: the date, sharp intensification of war symbolism, civilian tragedy, and event scale matched.

4. Istanbul Talks and the Withdrawal from Kyiv

Forecast publication date: 30.03.2022, archived on the site on 13.06.2022
Forecast window: 27-30.03.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"Резонансное военное событие и событие влияющее на общество в целом - это конечно же отход российских войск от Киева и переговоры в Стамбуле."

"...пока будут перебрасывать силы динамика агрессии замедлится..."

Forecast source: Детализация прогноза на конец марта, апрель и прогноз на апрель

What happened: on 29 March 2022, a round of negotiations took place in Istanbul. In the same period, Russia announced a reduction of military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Event source: CBS News

Why counted: negotiations, force movement, a slowdown in aggression, and withdrawal from Kyiv all matched.

5. Ukraine's EU Candidate Status, June 2022

Forecast publication date: 11.06.2022, archived on the site on 13.06.2022
Forecast window: 23.06.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"23.06.22... Большое военное событие, возможно усиление нашей позиции..."

"Или любой другой формат договоренностей, где Украина будет занимать лидирующее место."

Forecast source: Прогноз на вторую половину июня

What happened: on 23 June 2022, EU leaders granted Ukraine candidate status.

Event source: EEAS

Why counted: the event landed exactly on the forecast date, strengthened Ukraine's international position, and was tied to agreements and political status.

6. Kremenchuk, June 2022

Forecast publication date: 11.06.2022, archived on the site on 13.06.2022
Forecast window: 28.06.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"28.06.22... День Конституции Украины. Будет для нас непростым."

"Особая опасность для мирного населения, в этот день отнеситесь разумнее к предупреждениям..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на вторую половину июня

What happened: on 27 June 2022, a Russian missile hit a shopping center in Kremenchuk. Human Rights Watch describes it as an attack that killed civilians in a shopping center.

Event source: Human Rights Watch

Why counted: the window, warning of danger to civilians, and a major civilian event matched.

7. Kharkiv Counteroffensive, September 2022

Forecast publication date: 02.09.2022
Forecast window: 09.09.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"9 (+-2 дня) сентября произойдет крупное военное событие..."

"...может означать крупную победу или серьезные повреждения нанесенные врагу."

Forecast source: Прогноз на сентябрь 2022

What happened: in early September 2022, Ukraine launched the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Within days, Russian defenses were broken and Ukraine liberated significant territory in Kharkiv region.

Event source: PBS / AP

Why counted: the forecast gave a short window and the event character: a major military event, victory, or serious damage to the enemy.

8. November 2022: Kherson, G20, and the Missile in Poland

Forecast publication date: 04.11.2022
Forecast window: 13-22.11.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"В ноябре месяце нас ждет два переломных момента, которые произойдут примерно в одно время 14-16.11.22."

"Мир однозначно поймет, что происходит катастрофа. Событий будет очень много..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на ноябрь 2022

What happened: on 11 November 2022, Ukraine liberated Kherson. On 15 November, during the G20 summit, a missile incident in Poland sharply increased the international resonance of the war.

Event sources: PBS / AP, NATO

Why counted: a battlefield turning point, international political context, and an event that put the war at the center of world attention all matched.

9. December 2022: The United States, Patriot, and Military Joy

Forecast publication date: 11.12.2022
Forecast window: 20.12.2022 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"20.12.22... Марс указывает на военный характер события, а два благодетеля... говорят про радости... от военного события."

Forecast source: Прогноз на декабрь 2022

What happened: on 21 December 2022, the United States announced a new $1.85 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, including Patriot. Zelensky visited Washington.

Event source: Ukrainska Pravda

Why counted: the event fell inside the ±2 day window and matched the formula of a "joyful military event": aid, Patriot, Washington, and stronger defense of the state.

10. Kakhovka Dam, June 2023

Forecast publication date: 04.06.2023
Forecast window: 01.06.2023 ±3 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"1.06.2023.(+-3 дня)... Война с мирными жителями. Удары по инфраструктуре."

Forecast source: Прогноз июнь 2023

What happened: on 6 June 2023, the Kakhovka dam was destroyed, leading to large-scale flooding, evacuations, environmental consequences, and military impact.

Event source: AP

Why counted: infrastructure, civilians, a large-scale crisis, and the ±3 day window for slower aspects matched.

11. Crimean Bridge, July 2023

Forecast publication date: 03.07.2023
Forecast window: July 2023
Score: A-

Forecast quotation:

"Транспортная сфера, сфера информации, телекоммуникации, электричества, дорог, путей снабжения ослабнет..."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июль 2023

What happened: on 17 July 2023, the Crimean Bridge was hit. Traffic was stopped, the bridge was damaged, and its role as a military and logistical route again became central.

Event source: CNBC

Why counted: transport, roads, supply, and logistics matched. The score is A- because the domain was precise, while the window was broader than the strongest cases.

12. June 2024: Documents, Negotiations, Money, and the Peace Summit

Forecast publication date: 09.06.2024
Forecast window: 21-23.06.2024 ±2 days
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"21.06... Резонансные новости, переговоры, встречи, подписание бумаг..."

"23.06... последствия события 21-го числа... финансы или мирные жители."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июнь 2024. Часть 2

What happened: on 15-16 June 2024, the Peace Summit took place in Switzerland. AP described the summit outcome as broad support for Ukraine's territorial integrity among participating states. In June, G7 decisions on a $50 billion Ukraine loan and the 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security agreement also appeared.

Event sources: CBS News / AP, Ukrainska Pravda, Ukrainska Pravda / Office of the President

Why counted: negotiations, documents, international meetings, money, and the peace process matched.

13. Okhmatdyt, July 2024

Forecast publication date: 12.07.2024
Window: 05-11.07.2024
Score: A

Forecast quotation / author's verification:

"Венера - животные, мирные жители, дети и экология под угрозой."

"Венера входила в 12-ый дом лишений и ограничений, к которому относятся еще и больницы, дети входят в сферу влияния Венеры."

Forecast source: Прогноз на июль. Часть 2

What happened: on 8 July 2024, a Russian missile strike damaged the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv.

Event source: CNBC

Why counted: the symbolism matches very precisely: children, hospital, civilians, and a strike inside the weak Venus window.

14. Energy Corruption Scandal, November 2025

Forecast publication date: 22.11.2025
Forecast window: late November 2025
Score: A

Forecast quotation:

"В натальной карте Украины Сатурн и Кету занимают 8-ой дом... это положение и делает нашу страну коррумпированной."

"...во время, когда энергосистема подвергается многочисленным атакам... 'сесть' на бабки от энергетики?"

Forecast source: Прогноз политической ситуации в Украине из-за коррупционного скандала

What happened: The Guardian reported that Zelensky fired two ministers amid a corruption scandal in the energy sector. The article mentions Energoatom, a $100 million scheme, and a political crisis around the president.

Event source: The Guardian

Why counted: the event matched the topics of corruption, energy, political crisis, and the late-November window.

Summary Table of Evidence Cards

Result

The archive shows a stable checkable structure: strong results appear where the forecast sets the window, domain, and character of the event in advance. The most convincing cases are not tied to the general background of war, but to concrete points: Debaltseve, March 2022, June 2022, September 2022, November 2022, December 2022, the Kakhovka dam, the Crimean Bridge, June 2024, and the 2025 energy corruption scandal.

Future verification can be strengthened by a forward protocol: publish forecasts in probabilistic form, fix the event window and event criterion in advance, and after the month ends calculate Brier score together with a qualitative event card.